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particular figure, and others like it, don’t mirror all the uncertainties inherent in massive-scale surface temperature reconstructions primarily based on proxy knowledge. Box 6.4, Figure 1. The heterogeneous nature of climate during the “Medieval Warm Period” is illustrated by the broad spread of values exhibited by the individual data which were used to reconstruct NH mean Badass version groovy birdy colorful all over printed hawaiian shirt temperature. These include particular person, or small regional averages of, proxy information collated from those used by Mann and Jones , Esper and others and Luckman and Wilson , however exclude shorter sequence or these with no proof of sensitivity to local temperature. These records haven’t been calibrated right here, but each has been smoothed with a 20-year filter and scaled to have zero mean and unit normal deviation over the interval 1001 to 1980. Despite the wide error bars, Figure O-4 was misinterpreted by some as indicating the existence of one ‘definitive’ reconstruction with small century-to-century variability previous to the mid-19th century. It also needs to be emphasized that the error bars in this explicit figure, and others prefer it, don’t reflect all of the uncertainties inherent in massive-scale surface temperature reconstructions based on proxy data. Without attempting to explain the technical element, the underside line is that, in the MBH authentic, the hockey stick emerged in PC1 from the bristlecone/foxtail pines. If one facilities the info correctly the hockey stick does not emerge until PC4. Thus, a considerable change in strategy is required within the MBH reconstruction so as to achieve the hockey stick, a strategy which was particularly eschewed in MBH [see note under †]. In Wahl and Ammann’s personal phrases, the centering does significantly have an effect on the results. To reiterate our testimony, the decentering course of as used in MBH98 and MBH99 selectively prefers to emphasize the hockey stick shape. This is as a result of the decentering increases the obvious variance of hockey sticks and principal element methods attempt to search out elements with the biggest explainable variance. If the variance is artificially increased by decentering, then the principal element strategies will “information mine” for these shapes. In other phrases, the hockey stick form should be within the information to start out with or the CFR methodology would not decide it up. What we’ve proven both analytically and graphically in Figure 4.6 is that utilizing the CFR methodology, only one sign when decentered will overwhelm sixty nine impartial noise collection. The point is that if all 70 proxies contained the

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